The Dhupguri by-election in West Bengal has recently concluded, and while it may appear to be a slender victory for the Trinamool Congress (TMC), it carries important implications. Notably, it highlights the TMC’s ability to sway the Rajbanshi community, a significant demographic in this region.
Dhupguri by-election, a part of West Bengal’s political landscape, garnered considerable attention due to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) nomination of Ananta Rai Maharaj, a prominent figure within the Greater Cooch Behar Peoples’ Association (GCPA). This move was a strategic attempt by the BJP to secure the support of the Rajbanshi community for Rajya Sabha.
While it’s premature to predict future trends based solely on the Dhupguri by-election, certain takeaways could potentially impact the upcoming general elections:
- BJP’s Consecutive Losses: Dhupguri marks the eighth consecutive defeat for the BJP since its impressive performance in the 2021 state Assembly elections, where it secured 77 seats, its highest-ever tally in West Bengal. Despite a vigorous campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP failed to unseat the ruling Trinamool Congress, resulting in Mamata Banerjee’s third consecutive term as Chief Minister.
- Electorally Declining: Since the 2021 elections, the BJP’s electoral fortunes have been on a downward spiral, despite being the sole opposition party in the Assembly. It has faced setbacks in multiple by-elections, including Bhabanipur, Khardaha, Gosaba, Dinhata, Santipur, Ballygunge, Sagardighi, and now Dhupguri. Furthermore, the party could not retain three seats it had won in the previous elections.
- Narrow Margin of Defeat: Although the BJP lost in Dhupguri, the margin of defeat was slender. The TMC’s Nirmal Chandra Roy secured victory by only 4,309 votes, with a minimal difference in vote share – TMC received 46.28% of the votes, while BJP garnered 44.23%.
- Declining Influence in Northern Bengal: The BJP’s dominance in northern Bengal, where it had emerged as a major political player, appears to be waning. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party secured seven seats in the region. However, in the 2021 Assembly polls, it won 30 out of 54 seats in the eight north Bengal districts.
- Rajbanshi Community’s Impact: The BJP’s success in northern Bengal was closely linked to its support from the Rajbanshi community, primarily concentrated in several districts. However, the party’s loss in Dhupguri, where Rajbanshis account for 60% of the population, suggests a weakening of its influence over this community.
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The Rajbanshi vote was critical for victory, as all major parties – TMC, BJP, and CPI(M)-Congress alliance – fielded candidates from this community. This result challenges the notion of northern Bengal as an impregnable BJP stronghold.
While the BJP strives to consolidate its Rajbanshi support, the TMC is actively working to regain this demographic’s favor through various initiatives, including the formation of new police battalions and the declaration of public holidays honoring Rajbanshi leaders.
In conclusion, the Dhupguri by-election serves as a barometer of political dynamics in West Bengal, suggesting that the BJP faces challenges in retaining its once-strong position in the state. Despite the BJP’s optimistic public statements, the task of achieving its ambitious target of winning 35 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats in the next general elections appears formidable.
The BJP’s efforts to strengthen its position within the Rajbanshi community faced a counter-move by the TMC. In the lead-up to the 2021 polls, TMC leader Mamata Banerjee announced the formation of three new police battalions, including the “Narayani Battalion” in Cooch Behar, a long-standing demand of the Rajbanshi community. Additionally, the TMC government declared a holiday on the birth anniversary of Panchanan Barma, a 19th-century Rajbanshi leader and social reformist.
During the recent by-election campaign, TMC’s general secretary, Abhishek Banerjee, announced plans to make Dhupguri a sub-division by the end of the year, indicating the party’s commitment to the region’s development.
The BJP, in its bid to retain Rajbanshi support, nominated Ananta Rai Maharaj, who leads a faction of the Greater Cooch Behar Peoples’ Association (GCPA) and wields influence within the Rajbanshi community, for a Rajya Sabha seat.
However, the BJP’s attempt to capitalize on Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s remarks during a Kolkata rally on August 28 backfired. Mamata’s statement, where she likened herself to the people of Bengal with Hindus and Muslims as her hands and Rajbanshi and Matua as her legs, led to accusations of insulting the Rajbanshi community by comparing them to her legs. Mamata responded by accusing the BJP of deliberately misinterpreting her statement to sow discord.
According to the TMC, this strategy failed, and it was seen as a divisive move by the BJP. State TMC vice-president Jay Prakash Majumdar remarked, “The BJP sent Ananta Rai Maharaj, a separatist leader who wants a division of Bengal, to Rajya Sabha. This was done in desperation to garner the support of Rajbanshis… It is nothing but the narrow political attitude of the BJP which in this election backfired. The people in north Bengal have given a fitting reply to the BJP for harbouring divisive politics or promoting someone who wants a division of Bengal.”
In response, the state BJP remained undeterred, stating that it’s premature to draw conclusions based on a by-election. They argued that ruling parties often have an advantage in by-elections, and voter turnout is typically lower than in general elections.
However, with the BJP’s central leadership setting a target of winning 35 out of the total 42 Lok Sabha seats in the upcoming general elections, the road ahead appears challenging for the party. The Dhupguri by-election serves as a reminder that the BJP must carefully navigate the complex political landscape of West Bengal and work strategically to regain lost ground and the support of key communities.
In conclusion, the Dhupguri by-election offers valuable insights into the evolving political dynamics in West Bengal. The BJP faces the dual challenges of reversing a streak of electoral losses and regaining its grip on critical demographics such as the Rajbanshi community in northern Bengal. The upcoming general elections will undoubtedly be a crucial test of the party’s resilience and strategic prowess.
Frequently Asked Questions(FAQs)
1. What is the significance of the Dhupguri by-election in West Bengal?
- Answer: The Dhupguri by-election in West Bengal is significant as it provides insights into the evolving political dynamics in the state, especially concerning the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). It sheds light on the BJP’s electoral performance, its strategies, and its influence in northern Bengal.
2. How has the BJP’s electoral performance in West Bengal changed since the 2021 Assembly elections?
- Answer: Since the 2021 Assembly elections, the BJP has faced a series of electoral losses in West Bengal, including in Dhupguri. Despite winning 77 seats in 2021, its highest-ever tally, the BJP has been on a downward trajectory electorally, losing consecutive by-elections.
3. What role does the Rajbanshi community play in the Dhupguri by-election?
- Answer: The Rajbanshi community is a significant demographic in Dhupguri, accounting for 60% of the population. All major parties, including the Trinamool Congress (TMC), BJP, and CPI(M)-Congress alliance, fielded candidates from this community, highlighting its importance in the election.
4. How did the TMC manage to secure victory in Dhupguri despite the BJP’s previous win in 2021?
- Answer: The TMC’s victory in Dhupguri in the recent by-election indicates a shift in voter sentiment. The TMC made efforts to connect with the Rajbanshi community and focused on local development initiatives, which likely contributed to its success.
5. What challenges does the BJP face in regaining its influence in northern Bengal?
- Answer: The BJP’s influence in northern Bengal appears to be weakening, as indicated by its electoral losses. To regain its footing, the party must address challenges such as eroding vote share, changing demographics, and competition from other political parties.
6. What does the future hold for the BJP in West Bengal, considering its electoral goals for the upcoming general elections?
- Answer: The BJP has set ambitious targets for the upcoming general elections, aiming to win a substantial number of Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal. However, the Dhupguri by-election suggests that achieving these goals may be a formidable task, requiring strategic adjustments and a deep understanding of the state’s political landscape.